In my time in the industry, setting a key date at the start of the schedule and calculating forward, and setting a key date at the end of the schedule and calculating back, have been the two most prevalent methods for developing baselines and projecting progress.
I got to spend some time with Steven Spencer (check him out on LinkedIn), who suggested another method that he uses extensively with great success: “starting in the middle”
Starting from the middle is based on the recognition that the permit is generally the most fluid and unpredictable part of any real estate process. But once it’s obtained, projecting the execution of the project in both directions from the center is pretty straightforward. And effective. This approach relieves project managers of having to constantly adjust durations moving forward, but requires they accurately estimate when they think they will have the permit in hand. Not impossible, but not exactly a cakewalk. It takes a bit of experience.
In larger projects, starting from the middle essentially provides a checklist for the more fluid aspects of the process: obtaining the site, legal agreements, and approvals. Drop-dead dates let the team know when they need to deliver something in order to meet company goals. At the same time, moving forward from the permit gives the construction team clear deliverables and a mobilization strategy.
Setting your projections with this approach can be handled in a couple ways. One option is to simply project forward when an actual date is entered, allowing a team to see the impact of their efforts on the intended schedule. With the start of any real estate development schedule being so fluid and indeterminate, a second option is to group earlier milestone in phases and treat them like checklists. This keeps the schedule from constantly changing with every hiccup and allows the people finding the site the ability to “get these 5 things done” by specified date.
Starting from the middle is intriguing approach that Steven has used with a lot of success in his past roles. As this method is more widely adopted, I’ll be sure to let you know how it goes.